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Development and validation of safety and efficacy-associated Risk calculator for hepatocellular Carcinoma in the elderly after resection (SEARCHER): A multi-institutional observational study

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机构: [a]Department of General Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China [b]Liver Cancer Program, Recanati/Miller Transplantation Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, United States [c]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Navy Medical University, Shanghai, China [d]Department of Hepatobiliary, Pancreatic and Minimal Invasive Surgery, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital, People's Hospital of Hangzhou Medical College, Zhejiang, China [e]School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Shandong, China [f]Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, General Surgery and Transplantation Unit, University of Bologna, Italy [g]Department of Pancreatic Biliary Surgery, Changzheng Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China [h]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Heilongjiang, China [i]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University,Jiangsu, China [j]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Pu’er People’s Hospital, Yunnan, China [k]Department of General Surgery, Liuyang People’s Hospital, Hunan, China [l]Department of General Surgery, the Fourth Hospital of Harbin, Heilongjiang, China [m]Department of General Surgery, Ziyang First People’s Hospital, Sichuan, China [n]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China [o]Department of Surgery, Ohio State University, Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH, United States [p]Faculty of Medicine, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, China
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Increased life expectancy and improved perioperative management have resulted in increased utilization of hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among elderly patients. However, individualized model for predicting the surgical safety and efficacy is lacking. The present study aimed to develop a safety and efficacy-associated risk calculator for HCC in the elderly after resection (SEARCHER).From an international multicenter database, elderly patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for HCC were stratified by patient age: 65-69 years, 70-74 years, 75-79 years, and ≥80 years. Short- and long-term outcomes among the 4 groups were compared. Univariate and multivariate analyses of risk factors of postoperative major morbidity, cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were performed in the training cohort. A nomogram-based online calculator was then constructed and validated in the validation cohort.With increasing age, the risk of postoperative major morbidity and worse OS increased (P = 0.001 and 0.020), but not postoperative mortality and CSS (P = 0.577 and 0.890) among patients across the 4 groups. Based on three nomograms to predict major morbidity, CSS and OS, the SEARCHER model was constructed and made available at https://elderlyhcc.shinyapps.io/SEARCHER. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and optimal performance in both the training and validation cohorts, and performed better than the several commonly-used conventional scoring and staging systems of HCC.With higher potential postoperative major morbidity and worse OS as patients age, the decision of whether to perform a hepatectomy for HCC needs to be comprehensively considered in the elderly. The proposed SEARCHER model demonstrated good performance to individually predict safety and efficacy of hepatectomy in elderly patients with HCC.Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 外科
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大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 外科
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Q1 SURGERY
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Q1 SURGERY

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第一作者机构: [a]Department of General Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China
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通讯机构: [a]Department of General Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China [c]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Navy Medical University, Shanghai, China [d]Department of Hepatobiliary, Pancreatic and Minimal Invasive Surgery, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital, People's Hospital of Hangzhou Medical College, Zhejiang, China [*1]Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Navy Medical University, No. 225, Changhai Road, Shanghai 200438, China [*2]Department of Hepatobiliary, Pancreatic and Minimal Invasive Surgery, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital, People's Hospital of Hangzhou Medical College, Zhejiang, China [*3]Department of General Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.120, Wanshui Road, Hefei, Anhui 230000, China
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