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Development of a prognostic score for recommended TACE candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicentre observational study

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机构: [1]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Natl Clin Res Ctr Digest Dis, Dept Liver Dis & Digest Intervent Radiol, 15 West Changle Rd, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China [2]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Xijing Hosp Digest Dis, 15 West Changle Rd, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China [3]Zhejiang Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Sch Med, Dept Hepatobiliary & Pancreat Intervent Canc, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China [4]Kunming Univ, Tumour Hosp Yunnan Prov, Affiliated Hosp 3, Dept Minimally Invas Int Therapy, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China [5]Third Mil Med Univ, Southwest Hosp, Dept Radiol, Chongqing, Peoples R China [6]Nanjing Med Univ, Affiliated Canc Hosp, Jiangsu Prov Canc Hosp, Dept Intervent Radiol, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China [7]Zhengzhou Univ, Affiliated Canc Hosp, Henan Canc Hosp, Dept Intervent Radiol, Zhengzhou, Henan, Peoples R China [8]Nantong Univ, Dept Intervent Radiol, Affiliated Hosp, Nantong, Peoples R China [9]Third Mil Med Univ, Xinqiao Hosp, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, Chongqing, Peoples R China [10]Shandong Univ, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Shandong Prov Hosp, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China [11]Soochow Univ, Dept Intervent Radiol, Affiliated Hosp 1, Suzhou, Peoples R China [12]Nanchang Univ, Dept Oncol, Affiliated Hosp 2, Nanchang, Jiangxi, Peoples R China [13]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Intervent Radiol, Affiliated Hosp 1, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China [14]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Tangdu Hosp, Dept Intervent Radiol, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China [15]Qingdao Univ, Affiliated Hosp, Intervent Med Ctr, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China [16]Fujian Med Univ, Dept Intervent Radiol, Affiliated Hosp 1, Fuzhou, Fujian, Peoples R China [17]180th Hosp PLA, Clin Liver Dis Res Ctr, Nanjing Mil Command, Quanzhou, Peoples R China [18]Nanjing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Intervent Radiol, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China [19]Zhejiang Canc Hosp, Dept Radiol, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China [20]Hunan Prov Peoples Hosp, Dept Intervent Radiol & Vasc Surg, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China [21]Xinjiang Med Univ, Dept Intervent Radiol, Affiliated Tumour Hosp, Urumqi, Peoples R China [22]Yantai Yuhuangding Hosp, Dept Intervent Radiol, Yantai, Peoples R China [23]Nanjing Mil Command, Dept Med Imaging, Nanjing Gen Hosp, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China [24]Shandong Tumour Hosp, Dept Intervent Therapy, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China [25]Lanzhou Univ, Dept Intervent Med, Affiliated Hosp 1, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China [26]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Dept Hlth Stat, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China [27]Fourth Mil Med Univ, State Key Lab Canc Biol, Natl Clin Res Ctr Digest Dis, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
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关键词: Transarterial chemoembolization Hepatocellular carcinoma Risk stratification Individual prediction

摘要:
Background & Aims: Previous prognostic scores for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) were mainly derived from real-world settings, which are beyond guideline recommendations. A robust model for outcome prediction and risk stratification of recommended TACE candidates is lacking. We aimed to develop an easy-to-use tool specifically for these patients. Methods: Between January 2010 and May 2016, 1,604 treatment- naive patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh A5-B7 and performance status 0 undergoing TACE were included from 24 tertiary centres. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 807) and validation (n = 797) cohorts. A prognostic model was developed and subsequently validated. Predictive performance and discrimination were further evaluated and compared with other prognostic models. Results: The final presentation of the model was "linear predictor = largest tumour diameter (cm) + tumour number", which consistently outperformed other currently available models in both training and validation datasets as well as in different subgroups. The thirtieth percentile and the third quartile of the linear predictor, namely 6 and 12, were further selected as cut-off values, leading to the "six-and-twelve" score which could divide patients into 3 strata with the sum of tumour size and number <= 6, >6 but <= 12, and >12 presenting significantly different median survival of 49.1 (95% CI 43.7-59.4) months, 32.0 (95% CI 29.9-37.5) months, and 15.8 (95% CI 14.1-17.7) months, respectively. Conclusions: The six-and-twelve score may prove an easy-to-use tool to stratify recommended TACE candidates (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage-A/B) and predict individual survival with favourable performance and discrimination. Moreover, the score could stratify these patients in clinical practice as well as help design clinical trials with comparable criteria involving these patients. Further external validation of the score is required. Lay summary: There is currently no prognostic model specifically developed for recommended or ideal transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma, despite these patients being frequently identified as the best target population in pivotal randomized controlled trials. The six-and-twelve score provides patient survival prediction, especially in ideal candidates of TACE, outperforming other currently available models in both training and validation sets, as well as different subgroups. With cut-off values of 6 and 12, the score can stratify ideal TACE candidates into 3 strata with significantly different outcomes and may shed light on risk stratification of these patients in clinical practice as well as in clinical trials. (C) 2019 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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出版当年[2019]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2023]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 胃肠肝病学
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出版当年[2018]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

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第一作者机构: [1]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Natl Clin Res Ctr Digest Dis, Dept Liver Dis & Digest Intervent Radiol, 15 West Changle Rd, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China [2]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Xijing Hosp Digest Dis, 15 West Changle Rd, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [1]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Natl Clin Res Ctr Digest Dis, Dept Liver Dis & Digest Intervent Radiol, 15 West Changle Rd, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China [2]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Xijing Hosp Digest Dis, 15 West Changle Rd, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
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