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Machine learning for identification of short-term all-cause and cardiovascular deaths among patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis

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机构: [1]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Nephrology, Peking University, Key Laboratory of Renal Disease, Ministry of Health, Key Laboratory of Renal Disease, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China [2]Key Laboratory of Universal Wireless Communications, Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, China [3]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Hebei, China [4]Department of Nephrology, the Key Laboratory for the Prevention and Treatment of Chronic Kidney Disease of Chongqing, Chongqing Clinical Research Center of Kidney and Urology Diseases, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China [5]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Guangdong, China [6]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Hebei, China [7]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, People’s Hospital of Qinghai Province, Qinghai, China [8]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Handan Central Hospital, Hebei, China [9]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking Haidian Hospital, Beijing, China [10]Department of Nephrology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning, China [11]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Hebei, China [12]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China [13]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Henan, China [14]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Beijing Miyun District Hospital, Beijing, China [15]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Heilongjiang, China [16]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of BaoTou Medical College, Neimenggu, China [17]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, People’s Hospital of Langfang, Hebei, China [18]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, People’s Hospital of Gansu, Gansu, China [19]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University People’s Hospital, Beijing, China [20]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Pingdingshan First People’s Hospital, Henan, China [21]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The First People’s Hospital of Xining, Qinghai, China [22]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Taiyuan Central Hospital, Shanxi, China, [23]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Cangzhou People’s Hospital, Hebei, China, [24]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, First Hospital of Jilin University, Jilin, China, [25]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The People’s Hospital of Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan, China, [26]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Shanxi, China, [27]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, China Rehabilitation Research Center, Beijing Boai Hospital, Beijing, China [28]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Beijing Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing, China
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关键词: chronic kidney disease CVD machine learning mortality peritoneal dialysis Transformer

摘要:
Although more and more cardiovascular risk factors have been verified in peritoneal dialysis (PD) populations in different countries and regions, it is still difficult for clinicians to accurately and individually predict death in the near future. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning-based models to predict near-term all-cause and cardiovascular death. Machine learning models were developed among 7539 PD patients, which were randomly divided into a training set and an internal test set by five random shuffles of 5-fold cross-validation, to predict the cardiovascular death and all-cause death in 3 months. We chose objectively collected markers such as patient demographics, clinical characteristics, laboratory data, and dialysis-related variables to inform the models and assessed the predictive performance using a range of common performance metrics, such as sensitivity, positive predictive values, the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), and the area under the precision recall curve. In the test set, the CVDformer models had a AUROC of 0.8767 (0.8129, 0.9045) and 0.9026 (0.8404, 0.9352) and area under the precision recall curve of 0.9338 (0.8134,0.9453) and 0.9073 (0.8412, 0.9164) in predicting near-term all-cause death and cardiovascular death, respectively. The CVDformer models had high sensitivity and positive predictive values for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular deaths in 3 months in our PD population. Further calibration is warranted in the future.

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出版当年[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 泌尿学与肾脏学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 泌尿学与肾脏学
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出版当年[2023]版:
Q1 UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2023版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2022版]

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第一作者机构: [1]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Nephrology, Peking University, Key Laboratory of Renal Disease, Ministry of Health, Key Laboratory of Renal Disease, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China
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