机构:[1]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Nephrology, Peking University, Key Laboratory of Renal Disease, Ministry of Health, Key Laboratory of Renal Disease, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China[2]Key Laboratory of Universal Wireless Communications, Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, China[3]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Hebei, China[4]Department of Nephrology, the Key Laboratory for the Prevention and Treatment of Chronic Kidney Disease of Chongqing, Chongqing Clinical Research Center of Kidney and Urology Diseases, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China[5]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Guangdong, China北京大学深圳医院深圳市康宁医院深圳医学信息中心[6]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Hebei, China[7]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, People’s Hospital of Qinghai Province, Qinghai, China[8]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Handan Central Hospital, Hebei, China[9]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking Haidian Hospital, Beijing, China[10]Department of Nephrology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning, China中国医科大学附属盛京医院中国医科大学盛京医院[11]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Hebei, China[12]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China[13]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Henan, China[14]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Beijing Miyun District Hospital, Beijing, China[15]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Heilongjiang, China[16]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of BaoTou Medical College, Neimenggu, China内蒙古科技大学包头医学院[17]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, People’s Hospital of Langfang, Hebei, China[18]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, People’s Hospital of Gansu, Gansu, China[19]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University People’s Hospital, Beijing, China[20]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Pingdingshan First People’s Hospital, Henan, China[21]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The First People’s Hospital of Xining, Qinghai, China[22]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Taiyuan Central Hospital, Shanxi, China,[23]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Cangzhou People’s Hospital, Hebei, China,[24]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, First Hospital of Jilin University, Jilin, China,[25]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The People’s Hospital of Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan, China,[26]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Shanxi, China,[27]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, China Rehabilitation Research Center, Beijing Boai Hospital, Beijing, China[28]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Beijing Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing, China
Although more and more cardiovascular risk factors have been verified in peritoneal dialysis (PD) populations in different countries and regions, it is still difficult for clinicians to accurately and individually predict death in the near future. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning-based models to predict near-term all-cause and cardiovascular death. Machine learning models were developed among 7539 PD patients, which were randomly divided into a training set and an internal test set by five random shuffles of 5-fold cross-validation, to predict the cardiovascular death and all-cause death in 3 months. We chose objectively collected markers such as patient demographics, clinical characteristics, laboratory data, and dialysis-related variables to inform the models and assessed the predictive performance using a range of common performance metrics, such as sensitivity, positive predictive values, the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), and the area under the precision recall curve. In the test set, the CVDformer models had a AUROC of 0.8767 (0.8129, 0.9045) and 0.9026 (0.8404, 0.9352) and area under the precision recall curve of 0.9338 (0.8134,0.9453) and 0.9073 (0.8412, 0.9164) in predicting near-term all-cause death and cardiovascular death, respectively. The CVDformer models had high sensitivity and positive predictive values for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular deaths in 3 months in our PD population. Further calibration is warranted in the future.
基金:
Scientific Research Project of Capital Health Development [2020-2-4079]; CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences [2019-I2M-5-046]; High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding [2022CR82]; National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding [2022CX09]
第一作者机构:[1]Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Nephrology, Peking University, Key Laboratory of Renal Disease, Ministry of Health, Key Laboratory of Renal Disease, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China
共同第一作者:
通讯作者:
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Xu Xiao,Xu Zhiyuan,Ma Tiantian,et al.Machine learning for identification of short-term all-cause and cardiovascular deaths among patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis[J].Clinical Kidney Journal.2024,17(9):sfae242.doi:10.1093/ckj/sfae242.
APA:
Xu, Xiao,Xu, Zhiyuan,Ma, Tiantian,Li, Shaomei,Pei, Huayi...&He, Zhiqiang.(2024).Machine learning for identification of short-term all-cause and cardiovascular deaths among patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis.Clinical Kidney Journal,17,(9)
MLA:
Xu, Xiao,et al."Machine learning for identification of short-term all-cause and cardiovascular deaths among patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis".Clinical Kidney Journal 17..9(2024):sfae242