机构:[1]Department of Nephrology, Institute of Nephrology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China,[2]Department of Nephrology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China,[3]Department of Nephrology, Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital, Chengdu, China,四川省人民医院[4]Department of Nephrology, The First People’s Hospital of Yunnan Province, Kunming, China,内科片肾内科云南省第一人民医院[5]Department of Nephrology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China,[6]Department of Nephrology, Qingdao Municipal Hospital, Qingdao, China
We aimed to validate three IgAN risk models proposed by an international collaborative study and another CKD risk model generated by an extended CKD cohort with our multicenter Chinese IgAN cohort. Biopsy-proven IgAN patients with an eGFR >= 15 ml/min/1.73 m(2) at baseline and a minimum follow-up of 6 months were enrolled. The primary outcomes were a composite outcome (50% decline in eGFR or ESRD) and ESRD. The performance of those models was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and reclassification. A total of 2,300 eligible cases were enrolled. Of them, 288 (12.5%) patients reached composite outcome and 214 (9.3%) patients reached ESRD during a median follow-up period of 30 months. Using the composite outcome for analysis, the Clinical, Limited, Full, and CKD models had relatively good performance with similar C statistics (0.81, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82, respectively). While using ESRD as the end point, the four prediction models had better performance (all C statistics > 0.9). Furthermore, subgroup analysis showed that the models containing clinical and pathological variables (Full model and Limited model) had better discriminatory abilities than the models including only clinical indicators (Clinical model and CKD model) in low-risk patients characterized by higher baseline eGFR (>= 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)). In conclusion, we validated recently reported IgAN and CKD risk models in our Chinese IgAN cohort. Compared to pure clinical models, adding pathological variables will increase performance in predicting ESRD in low-risk IgAN patients with baseline eGFR >= 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2).</p>
基金:
the Major International (Regional)
Joint Research Program of National Natural Science Foundation of
China (No:8211001014), the National Natural Science Foundationof China (Nos. 81870460, 81570598, 81370015, 81900656),
“Excellent Academic Leader” by Shanghai Science and
Technology Commission (No: 21XD1402000). Shanghai Jiao
Tong University “Jiaotong Star” Plan Medical Engineering Cross
Research Key Project (No: YG2019ZDA18, YG2019QNA37),
Shanghai Shenkang Hospital Development Center “Three-year
Action Plan for Promoting Clinical Skills and Clinical Innovation
in Municipal Hospitals” (No : SHDC2020CR6017), Science and
Technology Innovation Action Plan of Shanghai Science and
Technology Committee (No. 17441902200), Shanghai Municipal
Education Commission, Gaofeng Clinical Medicine Grant (No.
20152207), Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine,
Multi-Center Clinical Research Project (No: DLY201510),
Shanghai Health and Family Planning Committee Hundred
Talents Program (No: 2018BR37), and Shanghai Municipal Key
Clinical Specialty (shslczdzk02502). No funding bodies had any role
in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or
preparation of the manuscript.
第一作者机构:[1]Department of Nephrology, Institute of Nephrology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China,
通讯作者:
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Ouyang Yan,Zhao Zhanzheng,Li Guisen,et al.A Validation Study Comparing Risk Prediction Models of IgA Nephropathy[J].FRONTIERS IN IMMUNOLOGY.2021,12:doi:10.3389/fimmu.2021.753901.
APA:
Ouyang, Yan,Zhao, Zhanzheng,Li, Guisen,Luo, Huimin,Xu, Feifei...&Chen, Nan.(2021).A Validation Study Comparing Risk Prediction Models of IgA Nephropathy.FRONTIERS IN IMMUNOLOGY,12,
MLA:
Ouyang, Yan,et al."A Validation Study Comparing Risk Prediction Models of IgA Nephropathy".FRONTIERS IN IMMUNOLOGY 12.(2021)