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External Validation of the IMPROVE Risk Score for Predicting Bleeding in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

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机构: [1]First Bethune Hosp Jilin Univ, Changchun, Jilin, Peoples R China [2]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Natl Ctr Resp Medicinestate Key Lab Resp Hlth, Beijing, Peoples R China [3]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Multimorbiditynat Clin Res Ctr Resp Diseasesinst R, Beijing, Peoples R China [4]China Japan Friendship Hosp, Ctr Resp Med, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Beijing, Peoples R China [5]Chinese Acad Med Sci & Peking Union Med Coll, China Japan Friendship Hosp, Inst Clin Med Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China [6]Guizhou Prov Peoples Hosp, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Guiyang, Peoples R China [7]Fujian Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Zhangzhou, Fujian, Peoples R China [8]Beijing Univ Chinese Med, China Japan Friendship Sch Clin Med, Beijing, Peoples R China [9]First Peoples Hosp Yinchuan, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Yinchuan, Peoples R China [10]Taizhou First Peoples Hosp, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Taizhou, Peoples R China [11]First Peoples Hosp Yunnan Prov, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China [12]Peking Univ China Japan Friendship Sch Clin Med, Beijing, Peoples R China
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关键词: COVID-19 external Validation bleeding Risk clinical Prediction Model

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BackgroundCOVID-19 patients are at increased risk of thrombosis and bleeding, but no standardized bleeding risk assessment tool has been recommended.ObjectiveThis study evaluates the predictive value of the IMPROVE Bleeding Risk Score (BRS) in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.DesignA multicenter, prospective cohort of 3,886 hospitalized COVID-19 patients across six tertiary hospitals in China between December 1, 2022, and January 31, 2023.ParticipantsPatients were objectively diagnosed with COVID-19 by pathogen or antibody detection and followed for 90 days.Main MeasuresThe primary outcomes were major bleeding (MB) and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (CRNMB). We evaluated the IMPROVE BRS predictive performance using hazard ratios (HRs), positive and negative predictive values, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration.Key ResultsAmong 3,886 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (median age 74, IQR 62-84), 42 MB (1.1%) and 47 CRNMB (1.2%) events occurred within 90 days. The IMPROVE BRS performed well in predicting MB events, with an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.77-0.91) at 90 days. Calibration plots indicated good calibration. High-risk patients had a significantly higher bleeding risk than low-risk patients, even after adjusting for low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) thromboprophylaxis (MB: adjusted HR 6.63, 95% CI 3.62-12.15; CRNMB: adjusted HR 3.69, 95% CI 2.04-6.71). Subgroup analysis indicated that LMWH thromboprophylaxis significantly increased MB risk in elderly patients with high bleeding risk (14 days: adjusted HR 5.45, 95% CI 1.15-25.94; 30 days: adjusted HR 4.16, 95% CI 1.11-15.53).ConclusionsThe IMPROVE BRS effectively predicted MB risk in COVID-19 patients and provided valuable guidance for LMWH thromboprophylaxis in elderly patients. Further research is needed to validate its applicability in different populations and refine threshold values for improved predictive accuracy.

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大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 卫生保健与服务 2 区 医学:内科
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Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2024版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2023版]

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第一作者机构: [1]First Bethune Hosp Jilin Univ, Changchun, Jilin, Peoples R China [2]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Natl Ctr Resp Medicinestate Key Lab Resp Hlth, Beijing, Peoples R China [3]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Multimorbiditynat Clin Res Ctr Resp Diseasesinst R, Beijing, Peoples R China [4]China Japan Friendship Hosp, Ctr Resp Med, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Beijing, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [1]First Bethune Hosp Jilin Univ, Changchun, Jilin, Peoples R China [2]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Natl Ctr Resp Medicinestate Key Lab Resp Hlth, Beijing, Peoples R China [3]Chinese Acad Med Sci, Multimorbiditynat Clin Res Ctr Resp Diseasesinst R, Beijing, Peoples R China [4]China Japan Friendship Hosp, Ctr Resp Med, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Beijing, Peoples R China
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